The Future Possibilities Index 2024

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The Future Possibilities Index (FPI), a global study of future trends was published during this week’s World Economic Forum Annual Meeting. The study evaluated factors that would enable governments, investors, and other stakeholders in the private sector to lead global transformations.

Six global transformative trends were identified in the research, aiming to promote growth and well-being. The study analyzed 100 countries and highlighted 70, with the United Kingdom, Denmark, USA, Netherlands, and Germany ranking among the top five to lead these changes. Portugal, on the other hand, occupies the 27th position, as revealed by the research conducted by Newsweek Vantage and Horizon.

The Index was launched during an event held at the Pavilion of the United Arab Emirates, as part of an initiative by the Gulf nation at the World Economic Forum 2024, held in Davos, Switzerland.

The Future Possibilities Index (FPI) is a tool that measures countries' ability to harness the potential of emerging future transformations for future growth. Three main areas of preparedness are considered:

  • Governmental Strategy and Policy: This assesses the extent to which transformation is led by government strategy, policy, and implementation.
  • Industry Strength: It evaluates the country's capacity to leverage trends, analyzing specific industry measures such as sector establishment, innovation level, and growth potential.
  • Central Capacity: This assesses the extent to which a country has the structures – policies, institutions, and other factors – to seize the more advanced opportunities that each trend offers.

Six Transformative Trends

The six identified trends bring a set of significant economic possibilities for all countries worldwide. Among them are the "Exabyte Economy" (advanced digital technologies); "Wellbeing Economy" (health prevention and well-being); "Net Zero Economy" (carbon emissions reduction); "Circular Economy" (recycling and reuse); "BioGrowth Economy" (food and agricultural innovations); and "Experience Economy" (consumption of experiences instead of physical goods).

The combined business opportunity of these trends is estimated to exceed $44 trillion by 2030, representing over 40% of the global GDP in 2023. Here are some of the identified opportunities for each of these trends:

Exabyte Economy: Technological Boost
Valued at $11 trillion to $17 trillion by 2030, the Exabyte Economy is at the forefront of the transformative era. It encompasses technologies such as IoT, 5G, AI, and Big Data, revolutionizing industries and reshaping the digital landscape.

Wellbeing Economy: Building a Healthier Future
Projected to be worth about $9 trillion by 2030, the wellbeing economy focuses on preventive health, self-improvement coaching, organizational and educational programs, fitness, diet, and health and beauty. It prioritizes holistic health and personal development.

Net Zero Economy: Pursuing Sustainable Prosperity
Valued at $4 trillion, the Net Zero Economy is committed to carbon neutrality, sustainable practices, and environmental stewardship, serving as a beacon of hope in the fight against climate change.

Circular Economy: Closing the Sustainability Cycle
With an estimated value of $4.5 trillion by 2030, the circular economy is built on the principles of reduction, reuse, and recycling. It challenges the traditional linear approach, aiming to minimize waste and maximize resource efficiency.

BioGrowth Economy: Supporting Nature for Progress
Projected to be worth $1.7 trillion by 2030, the BioGrowth Economy encompasses biorefineries, biomaterials, plant tissue culture, synthetic biology, and plant-based foods, leveraging nature's capabilities for sustainable industrial and agricultural practices.

Experience Economy: Beyond the Tangible
Projected to reach $17 trillion by 2030, the experience economy thrives on virtual reality, 3D printing, and tourism. It offers immersive and memorable experiences, redefining the value of products and services.

Overall, the FPI assessed 100 countries, selected based on their level of development, the availability of high-quality data, and the ability to ensure high-quality survey results, and compiled a list of the top 70.

The indicators used in the FPI are derived from publicly available data from reputable sources, along with new indicators developed for this project. Indicators were also developed for emerging fields, such as data policies and artificial intelligence.

The full study can be dowloaded here:

Digital Institute
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